December 20, 2024
[Press Release] Heterogeneity in Host Populations Drives the Evolution of More Virulent Pathogens
Release Summary
Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in real-world host populations, yet most theories assume homogeneity. Using a metapopulation model, we examine how host heterogeneities, such as uneven movement patterns and local productivities, affect the evolution of pathogen virulence. Our findings show that increased heterogeneity consistently causes higher virulence compared to more homogeneous conditions. These results suggest that previous models have underestimated evolving virulence, raising concerns that urbanization and increasing mobility imbalances accelerate the emergence of more infectious and lethal pathogens.